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French soft wheat exports forecast lower

French soft wheat exports in 2020-21 are forecasted lower due to weather.

French soft wheat exports outside of the EU are now estimated at 6.6 million tons, down from an initial projection of 7.75 million tons and 51% below a record 13.46 million tons in 2019-20.

FranceAgriMer has been anticipating a steep drop in exports in 2020-21 after France’s wheat crops fell by around a quarter this year due to adverse weather, Reuters said.

It’s estimated France would ship between 1.5 million and 2.5 million tons to Algeria, far below the 5 million tons in previous years.

Sales to China should reach 1 million tons, possibly up to 2 million if French wheat remains competitive and China has increasing needs for human and feed use, Reuters said.

Exports to Morocco, another traditional market for French wheat, were estimated at around 1 million tons while West Africa was seen importing between 1 million and 1.5 million tons of the grain.

Expected soft wheat exports to other EU countries and Britain in 2020-21 were revised down to 6.4 million tons.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of this season are now projected at 2.9 million tons, compared with an initial forecast of 2.6 million.

2019-20 French soft wheat estimates

France’s soft wheat exports outside of the E.U. are expected to increase 14% to a four-year high in the 2019-20 crop year, according to FranceAgriMer.

Exports of soft wheat are estimated at 11 million tons, the highest since 2015-16.

France had a rare shipment of wheat to China at the beginning of the season, and traders are hopeful French wheat will regain market share in West Africa and see extra demand from Morocco, which had a poor harvest.

However, competition from the Black Sea and possibly Argentina could cap exports.

Officials are estimating France has harvested its second-largest soft wheat crop on record. FranceAgriMer estimated the crop at 39.45 million tons, about 16% higher than last year’s total.

Within the E.U., French soft wheat exports are expected to increase by 14%. Domestic demand is expected to also increase due to a 21% rise in animal feed use.

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