El comercio exterior en Latinoamérica tuvo en 2020 su peor rendimiento desde la Gran Recesión (2008) al desplomarse un 13 %, pero la caída fue 10 puntos menor de lo previsto debido al repunte de la demanda en los principales socios de la región, especialmente China, de acuerdo a un estudio de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (Cepal). Así, las tres grandes economías de Latinoamérica, Brasil, México y Argentina, crecerán este año el 3,7 %, el 5 %, y el 5,8 %, respectivamente, según el FMI. Otros países latinoamericanos, como Colombia, Chile y Perú, también avanzarán el 5,1 %, el 6,2 %, y el 8,5 %, respectivamente. Por el contrario, Venezuela sufrirá una contracción económica del 10 %. El FMI advierte en su informe de que las perspectivas a más largo plazo “siguen dependiendo de la trayectoria de la pandemia». “Con algunas excepciones -por ejemplo, Chile, Costa Rica o México-, la mayoría de los países no han obtenido suficientes vacunas para cubrir a sus poblaciones”, destaca la organización multilateral en su informe, que analiza las perspectivas económicas de todo el mundo. Por otro lado, las proyecciones de 2021 para las economías caribeñas, dependientes mayoritariamente del turismo, uno de los sectores más afectados por la pandemia del coronavirus a nivel global, se han revisado a la baja en 1,5 puntos, hasta el 2,4 %. EFE

Retail sales grew 5.2% in February in Singapore

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Retail sales grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year in February, a reversal from the 6.1 percent decline recorded in January.

This improvement was mainly associated with Chinese New Year celebrations in February, said the Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStat) on Monday (Apr 5). Chinese New Year was in January last year.

Comparing the performance for the January to February two-month period of the festivities, retail sales fell 1.2 percent in 2021 compared to 2020.

Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales increased 7.7 percent in February, compared to the 8.4 percent decline in January.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales decreased 1.6 percent in February compared to the previous month. Excluding motor vehicles, seasonally adjusted sales fell 1.2 percent.

The estimated total retail sales value for February was about S$3.3 billion. Online sales made up about 10.1 percent of this, similar to the 10.2 percent recorded in January, said SingStat.

Online sales made up 44.3 percent of total receipts in the computer and telecommunications equipment industry.

26 percent of sales in furniture and household equipment and 10.7 percent of sales in supermarkets and hypermarkets.

Retail sales boosted by Chinese New Year celebrations

While most retail industries recorded improved year-on-year sales in February due to the Chinese New Year boost.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, the watches and jewellery, petrol service stations, and computer and telecommunications equipment increased between 2.8 percent and 5.6 percent during this period.

Sales of food and beverage services fell 3.5 percent in February on a year-on-year basis, a smaller contraction compared to the 24.6 percent decline in January 2021.

This was again mainly attributed to Chinese New Year celebrations, SingStat said.

Food and beverage sales remained weak due to capacity constraints arising from safe distancing measures, SingStat added.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales of food and beverage services declined 1.1 percent in February over the previous month.

The total sales value of food and beverage services in February was estimated at S$699 million.

Of this, online sales made up about 22.2 percent, slightly higher than 22.1 percent in January.

Source: Channel News Asia

Retail sales in the USA may rise among vaccination

Retail sales in the USA may rise among vaccination

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U.S. retail sales could rise as much as 8.2percent to more than US$4.33 trillion this year as more people get the COVID-19 vaccine and the economy reopens, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said on Wednesday.

Preliminary results show retail sales for 2020 grew 6.7percent to US$4.06 trillion, above the trade body’s forecast of at least 3.5percent growth, the NRF said. The retail sales numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

“Our principal assumption is that the vaccination will be effective and permits accelerated growth during the mid-year. The economy is expected to see its fastest growth in over two decades,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement.

U.S. retail sales are expected to rise between 6.5percent and 8.2percent in 2021, the NRF said.

Some U.S. retailers like Macy’s have folded expected benefits from the continued rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine into annual financial forecasts, as shoppers will be able to step out and travel more, helping sales at brick-and-mortar stores pick up.

New rounds of stimulus-driven consumer spending in the coming months will strengthen retail sales, should. Congress passes the Biden administration’s support plan that includes sending a US$1,400 check to households.

The NRF also said online sales, which are included in the overall number for 2021, were expected to increase between 18percent and 23percent to between US$1.14 trillion and US$1.19 trillion. In 2020, online and other nonstore sales jumped 21.9 percent to US$969.4 billion as consumers opted to stay home and place their orders online to curb the spread of the virus.

The trade body’s forecast follows other estimates from companies like consumer research firm Customer Growth Partners (CGP).

CGP said earlier this month that retail sales in 2021 will total a record US$4.26 trillion, up 8.1percent from US$3.94 trillion in 2020.

Fuente: Channel News Asia

Retail sales fall 1.9% in Singapore in November

Retail sales fall 1.9% in Singapore in November

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Retail sales in Singapore dipped 1.9 percent year-on-year in November, an improvement from the revised 8.5 percent fall in October, according to figures released by the Department of Statistics (SingStat) on Tuesday (Jan 5).

Excluding motor sales, retail sales decreased 2.9 percent in November compared to the 11 percent decline in October.

This was mainly due to multiple sales events such as Singles’ Day (11.11), Black Friday as well as new mobile phone launches, said SingStat.

Compared to the previous month, seasonally adjusted retail sales also improved, expanding 7.3 percent in November compared to the 0.2 percent increase in October.

Excluding motor vehicles, seasonally adjusted retail sales grew by 9.8 percent compared with the 0.1 percent increase in October.

On a year-on-year basis, most retail industries continued to register declines in November. Cosmetics, department store, as well as apparel and footwear sales, declined between 22.3 percent and 27.5 percent as these industries continued to remain affected by low visitor arrivals. 

Meanwhile, computer and telecommunications equipment, along with furniture and household equipment saw growths in sales of 29 percent and 28.5 percent respectively. This is due mainly to higher sales of mobile phones and household appliances, said SingStat. 

Supermarkets and hypermarkets saw a growth in sales of 22.6 percent, while sales of recreational goods rose 13.1 percent, due to higher demand for groceries and sporting goods.

Growth in sales in most retail industries in November

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, most retail industries recorded growths in November. 

Computers and telecommunications recorded higher sales of 59 percent from new mobile phone launches. 

Watches and jewelry, department stores, as well as furniture and household equipment recorded higher sales of between 13.4 percent and 20.7 percent. 

In contrast, motor vehicles recorded a 5.2 percent decline in sales during this period. 

The estimated total value of retail sales in November was about S$3.6 billion, of which 14.3 percent was spent online, an increase from the 10.5 percent recorded in the previous month. 

“The higher online retail sales proportion was due to the online shopping events in November such as Singles’ Day,” said SingStat. 

Source: Channel News Asia.

Japan’s output and retail sales rose in November

Japan’s output and retail sales rose in November

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Japan’s industrial output rose for the fifth straight month in October and retail sales in the same month grew the most in over a year, signaling the economy was recovering further from the damage caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

The world’s third-largest economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter from a pandemic-induced slump, thanks to surging consumption and exports, though some analysts worry about slowing growth ahead due to a resurgence in coronavirus infections.

“There’s a possibility China-bound exports and output will be sluggish if the United States gets worse, and that would spread to China,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research.

“But if there will be any impact, it’ll be with a bit of a time lag,” he said, adding that Japanese manufacturers could feel it most strongly in the first quarter of next year.

Breakdown of the November output

Official data released showed factory output jumped 3.8 percent in October from the previous month, mainly due to strength in general machinery production and motor vehicle manufacturing.

The solid increase beat the median market forecast of a 2.1 percent rise in a Reuters poll of economists and was in line with the prior month’s 3.9 percent gain.

Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) expected output to grow another 2.7 percent in November and decline 2.4 percent in December.

“The overall figure was quite strong. The output of capital expenditure-related machinery such as general machinery production was picking up,” Tsunoda said.

Inventories across all industries fell 1.6 percent in October, the seventh straight month of decline, as inventories of inorganic and organic chemicals as well as iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals, were reduced.

Separate data showed retail sales posted their largest gain since September last year in October year-on-year after consumers sharply curtailed spending in October 2019 following a sales tax hike at that time.

Retail sales jumped 6.4 percent year-on-year in October to rise for the first time in eight months, matching a 6.4 percent gain expected by economists in a Reuters poll and turning around from an 8.7 percent drop in the previous month.

Source: Jakarta Post

singapore retail sales fell

Retail sales in Singapore fell 8.5 percent in July

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Retail sales were on the rocky road to recovery in July, the first full month with shops reopened, after the second-quarter’s “circuit-breaker” shutdown.

This is an improvement from the 27.7 per cent plunge in June, said the Department of Statistics (SingStat) on Friday

Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales fell 7.7 per cent year-on-year, figures released by SingStat showed.

Compared to June, seasonally adjusted retail sales saw a 27.4 per cent increase month-on-month in July – this was attributed to a lower base in the previous month, when most physical stores were closed until Jun 18, before Phase 2 of Singapore’s reopening began.

The estimated total retail sales value in July was about S$3.3 billion, with online retail sales making up an estimated 11.0 per cent.

Retail sales in the F&B Sector

Sales of F&B services fell 25.4 per cent year-on-year, compared to the 43.6 per cent decline in the previous month, said SingStat.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales of F&B services grew 29.2 per cent in July over the previous month.

The growth was mainly attributed to the lower base in June, when food & beverage establishments operated on a takeaway or delivery basis until Jun 18.

The turnover of restaurants and food caterers declined 29.9 per cent and 45.2 per cent respectively in July this year compared to July 2019.

“Similarly, cafes, food courts and other eating places and fast food outlets recorded lower sales of 19.6 per cent and 11.5 per cent respectively during this period,” SingStat added.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, turnover of restaurants, cafes, food courts and other eating places as well as fast food outlets grew by between 7.2 per cent and 61.0 per cent compared to the previous month, with more people dining in at food and beverage establishments in Phase 2.

We can say that these sectors are still affected by low tourism in the city-state.