Australian farmers harvested their largest wheat crop

Australian farmers harvested their largest wheat crop

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Australian farmers have harvested their largest-ever wheat crop, according to the latest crop report issued by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences issued Feb. 16. ABARES estimated the 2020-21 Australian wheat crop at 33.337 million tons, up 18.172 million tons, or 120%, from the drought-reduced 2019-20 outturn of 15.165 million tons.

The 2020-21 wheat crop was 5% larger than the previous record outturn of 31.819 million tons in 2016-17 and compared with the recent five-year average outturn of 21.6 million tons.

“Harvesting of winter crops (including wheat) is now largely complete,” ABARES said in a commentary accompanying its crop report. “National production is estimated to have increased 89% in 2020-21 to 55.2 million tons, 7.4% higher than the forecast presented in the December 2020 edition of the Australian crop report. The upward revision was the result of yields continuing to exceed initial forecasts as harvest progressed, particularly in New South Wales and Western Australia.”

The higher estimate for 2020-21 wheat production will be reflected in the March US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which will be issued on March 9.

The current USDA forecast for 2020-21 Australian wheat production was 30 million tons.

Australian harvest was predicted

Australia was poised to produce its second-largest wheat crop on record in 2020-21, more than doubling last year’s drought-affected estimate of 15.2 million tons, according to a Jan. 26 report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN).

This year’s projected crop of 31 million tones, if realized, would rank behind only the 2016-17 season when nearly 33 million tones-of wheat were harvested.

The report noted that GrainCorp, the major grain handler in the New South Wales region, is reporting a huge increase in wheat receivables with the company has taken in 8.4 million tons as of mid-January, compared to only 500,000 tons at the same time last year.

“This is a monumental turnaround that has strongly supported Australia’s forecast wheat production of 31 million tons,” the report said.

Source: WordlGrain.

French soft wheat shipments decline

French soft wheat shipments decline

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French soft wheat shipments outside the European Union in December fell from a season’s high the previous month as exports to China eased, according to a Reuters report based on Refinitiv data.

According to Refinitiv data, soft wheat exports to destinations outside the EU totaled 797,000 tons in December, the sixth month of the 2020-21 season. That was below the 877,000 tons recorded in November, although December’s total was still the second-largest so far this season.

China was the largest importer of French soft wheat outside the EU for a third straight month in December, accounting for 271,300 tons.

France has shipped more than 1 million tons of wheat to China since July. Some expect exports to reach 2 million tons during the whole season.

French soft wheat last expectations

Last November, the forecast for French soft wheat exports outside of EU countries was revised upward by FranceAgriMer.

In the previous June 11 report, FranceAgriMer projected non-EU exports from France this season to climb to 13.45 million tons from the 13.3 million estimated last month.

The projected exports for the 2019-20 season that ends on June 30, which would mark a record volume, would be 39.1% above 2018-19, FranceAgriMer’s cereal supply and demand data showed.

It marks the ninth straight month that FranceAgriMer has increased its non-EU export outlook for soft wheat. Last September, it forecast 11 million tons to be exported.

French exports have been boosted this season by supplies from a bumper 2019 harvest, reduced competition from top wheat exporter Russia, and strong demand from countries such as China and Morocco.

FranceAgriMer estimate for French soft wheat exports within the EU was 7.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous month.

Source: World of grain.

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Grain forecast to rise in EU in 2021

Grain forecast to rise in EU in 2021

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In its first forecast for 2021, COCERAL sees the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 307.4 million tons, a significant increase over the 295.7 million tons harvested in 2020.

The report released on Dec. 9 projects wheat production (excluding durum) will recover from 127.9 million tons to 143 million tons, driven by higher expected plantings and yields in France, Germany, the UK, and the Balkan countries where adverse weather had affected the last crop.

COCERAL forecasts EU-27+UK 2021 barley production at 61.5 million tons, down from 63.1 million tons last year. While Germany and France are forecast to see much better crops than in 2020, production is seen down in Spain, where weather during the most critical crop development stage has been excellent in 2020, and in the UK, where spring barley planting should decrease substantially as the country has planted more winter grains this year than last year.

The EU-27+UK 2021 corn crop is seen by COCERAL at 63.1 million tons, up from last year’s 62.8-million-tonne crop, with much higher crops in the Balkan countries and small reductions in several other EU member states.

The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is forecast to recover slightly from 16.9 million tons to 17.8 million tons because of slightly higher crops in several countries, including Germany, France, the UK, Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary.

Previous grain output forecast for the EU

The grain output was previously forecast to decline by 3% over the previous year due to extremely challenging planting conditions in France and the United Kingdom, according to a May 6 Global Agricultural Information Network report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The output is expected to reach 304 million tons, down from 315 million in 2019-20, the USDA said.

“If realized, this will be very close to both the five- and 10-year production averages but belies a reduction in the area of around 500,000 hectares and 1 million hectares, respectively, and corresponding increases in average grain yields,” the USDA said.

The projected sharp decline in grain production in the UK and France are due to “a very wet fall and a long, mild and wet winter,” which has disrupted planting and raised disease concerns, the USDA said.

With both France and the UK each projected to see a more than a 5-million-tonne reduction in their 2020-21 wheat crops, EU wheat output is forecast to fall by nearly 11 million tons’ year-on-year to 144 million tons due to a 700,000-hectare decrease in planted area.

The USDA projects EU grain exports to decline 10%, from 43.7 million tons to 39.3 million tons. EU ending stocks also will tumble, according to the USDA, to 25 million tons from 28.8 million tons, a drop of 13% year-on-year.

Source: World of Grain

Ukraine reach two-thirds of its wheat export quota

Ukraine reach two-thirds of its wheat export quota

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Ukraine has used 66.5% of its wheat export quota for the 2020-21 marketing season, according to economy ministry data reported by Reuters.

As of Nov. 20, Ukraine had shipped 11.63 million tons of wheat for this season, which runs from July through June.

Ukraine officials have stated that the volume of wheat available for export this season must not exceed 17.5 million tons.

One of the world’s leading wheat exporters, Ukraine exported 20.5 million tons of wheat in 2019-20, but a severe drought has led to a decline in this year’s crop.

The data also showed Ukraine had exported 4.5 million tons of corn and 3.7 million tons of barley to take total grain exports to around 20.2 million tons.

Ukraine accounts for about 16% of global grain exports and sold 56.7 million tons of various grains to foreign buyers in the 2019-20 season.

Ukraine to reach its wheat export quota by spring

In October, traders told Reuters that Ukraine will likely reach its wheat export quota for the 2020-21 marketing year by next March or April.

The pandemic led some countries to impose quotas on grain exports for the current marketing year to ensure adequate domestic supplies.

Meanwhile, Ukraine grain production in 2020-21 could fall to 68 million tons, down from a record 75 million tons due to severe drought across most parts of the country.

Winter crop sowing includes 4.6 million hectares of winter wheat, or 76% of the expected area, and 628,300 hectares of winter barley, or 66% of the anticipated area.

By Oct 23, Ukraine had exported 10 million tons of wheat (about 57% of the quota), according to data from the Ukraine economy ministry. It also showed that the country’s overall grain exports have fallen by nearly 13% so far this season.

Source: World of Grain.

Wheat might be affected by the dryness in Russia

Wheat might be affected by the dryness in Russia

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Farmers from Russia have been sowing winter wheat into dry soil this year, increasing risks for the 2020-21 crop, said a report on Nov. 17.

One of the world’s largest grain exporters, Russia is estimated to have planted 19.1 million hectares of grain, up from 18.1 million hectares at the same time a year ago.

“Despite some improvement in recent weeks, plants are still in a bad shape overall,” Sovecon agriculture consultancy. “A lot will depend on how harsh this winter in Russia will be and how much precipitation we will see.”

Conditions for wheat plantings are particularly poor in part of Volgograd, Stavropol, and nearby regions of Russia, despite some improvement seen in recent weeks, analysts told.

The situation is also complicated by the lack of moisture in the subsoil levels in several key regions, which means higher risks for both winter and spring grains in 2021.

The share of sowings in bad condition, which Russian officials usually estimate and release in late November, is likely to be close to a record high, Dmitry Rylko, the head of the IKAR consultancy, told Reuters.

In 2019-20, Russia produced 73.6 million tons of wheat, exporting nearly half of that total. It ranked fourth in output behind China, the European Union (EU), and India and second in exports behind the EU.

The wheat from Russia won’t be the only one affected

At the beginning of November, a GAIN report from the USDA said that weather issues negatively impacted the expected wheat output of Argentina for the 2020-21 marketing year.

The USDA expects wheat production in Argentina to fall to 17.4 million tons for the 2020-21 marketing year due to dry La Niña weather conditions, which are expected to cause losses for the next few months.

Wheat exports for the 2019-20 marketing are expected to close in November at 13.1 million tons, including flour.

The country’s corn production is projected to slip 48 million tons in the 2020-21 marketing year due to a reduction of planted area and yield. With a smaller corn crop expected, the USDA anticipates a decrease in exports of the commodity to 33 million tons.

Wheat crop plants in drought land during summer season.

Argentina wheat bogged down by weather

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Weather issues negatively impacted the expected wheat output of Argentina for the 2020-21 marketing year, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA expects wheat production in Argentina to fall to 17.4 million tons for the 2020-21 marketing year due to dry La Niña weather conditions, which are expected to cause losses for the next few months.

Wheat exports for the 2019-20 marketing are expected to close in November at 13.1 million tons, including flour.

The country’s corn production is projected to slip 48 million tons in the 2020-21 marketing year due to a reduction of planted area and yield. With a smaller corn crop expected, the USDA anticipates a decrease in exports of the commodity to 33 million tons.

Low water levels have taken a toll on rice planted areas in Argentina and in turn total production.  The 2020-21 marketing year rice production outlook decreased by 5% to 1.2 million tons, according to the USDA.

Unlike the other commodities, Argentina’s sorghum production increased 8% as China’s demand for it ramps up. The USDA expects sorghum’s 2020-21 marketing year production to a total of 2.6 million tons. Sorghum’s exports are expected to hit one million tons, the highest since the 2013-14 marketing year.

Previous predictions about the Argentina wheat

In august other predictions were made by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchanges, saying that dryness and unusually strong frosts and crop-eating pests could lower Argentina’s 2020-21 wheat yields by as much as 50%.

This due to areas of the Pampas grains belt was having below-normal rainfall. Planted acreage fell to 6.5 million hectares from 6.8 million as growers were nervous about the dryness.

“Estimates of potential yield losses range between 20% and 50%, in northeastern and northwestern farm areas, and in the province of Cordoba,” the report said and added that affected areas account for more than 25% of this year’s wheat plantings.

Wheat fields in the evening

Ukraine to reach its wheat export quota by spring

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Ukraine will likely reach its wheat export quota for the 2020-21 marketing year by next March or April, traders told Reuters.

Traders and the Ukrainian government have agreed that the volume of wheat available for export this July-June season must not exceed 17.5 million tons.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led some countries to impose quotas on grain exports for the current marketing year to ensure adequate domestic supplies.

Meanwhile, Ukraine grain production in 2020-21 could fall to 68 million tons, down from a record 75 million tons due to severe drought across most parts of the country.

Winter crop sowing includes 4.6 million hectares of winter wheat, or 76% of the expected area, and 628,300 hectares of winter barley, or 66% of the anticipated area.

As of Oct. 23, Ukraine had exported 10 million tons of wheat (about 57% of the quota), according to data from the Ukraine economy ministry. It also showed that the country’s overall grain exports have fallen by nearly 13% so far this season.

Traders told Reuters that an additional 1 million tons of wheat was due to be exported in the coming weeks and at least 3 million tons of wheat had already been contracted for future exports.

Ukraine wrapped up harvest and began sowing winter crops

Ukraine has harvested 80% of its sown area and planting of winter crops is 76% complete, was reported by Ukraine’s economy ministry.

A total of 47.4 million tons of grain was harvested from 12.3 million hectares as of Oct. 19. Farmers have completed wheat and barley harvest and collected about 44% of the corn sown area.

Grain totals could fall to 68 million tons, down from a record 75 million tons due to severe drought across most parts of the country, was said. Winter crop sowing includes 4.6 million hectares of winter wheat, or 76% of the expected area, and 628,300 hectares of winter barley, or 66% of the anticipated area.